The July 28 Runoff Is Small Enough for Cannabis Voters to Matter. Here’s the Math, South Dakota.

The Republican gubernatorial runoff is July 28. Toby Doeden faces incumbent Larry Rhoden. For people who care about the stability of South Dakota’s medical cannabis program, the question is straightforward: does a modest, targeted vote actually matter in this race?

The numbers say yes — but only if the expectations stay realistic.

What the June Primary Already Showed

In the June 2 Republican primary:

• Toby Doeden: 41,712 votes (30.6%)

• Larry Rhoden: 34,321 votes (25.2%)

• Total votes cast: 136,230

Doeden finished first and carried a lead of roughly 7,400 votes into the runoff. No candidate cleared the 35% threshold, which is why the race continues.

Runoff Turnout Will Be Lower

July runoffs almost always draw fewer voters than the initial primary. A realistic range for total votes on July 28 is 80,000 to 95,000, with an outside chance of reaching the low 100,000s if engagement spikes. That is a much smaller electorate than June.

In a race this size, margins compress. A few thousand net votes become significant.

Larry Rhoden’s Running Mate Has Opposed Cannabis Expansion. Here’s Who Says He Wants to Grow the Industry.

What Cannabis Voters Can Actually Move

South Dakota’s medical cannabis patient population sits in the low-to-mid tens of thousands. The number of those patients (plus broader cannabis-sympathetic voters) who are both eligible and likely to vote in a Republican runoff is smaller still. The mobilizable pool is measured in thousands, not tens of thousands.

That reality shapes the useful targets:

• 5,000 net votes for Doeden is meaningful. In an 80,000–95,000 vote runoff, that is a real margin.

• 10,000 net votes would be a strong contribution and create comfortable breathing room.

• 20,000 or 50,000 is not a serious planning number for this electorate and this calendar.

The leverage comes from the low total turnout, not from an imaginary mass cannabis voting bloc.

Practical Ways to Mobilize Patients in a Short Window

With only days left, the only strategies that work are direct, low-cost, and focused on people who already have a reason to care.

1. Patient-to-patient contact

The highest-conversion method is still personal outreach. Patients who already talk to each other about card renewals, product availability, or clinic issues are the same network that can pass along a simple voting reminder. One clear message beats broad messaging: the runoff is small, and a few thousand votes can still register.

2. Dispensary and clinic information, not pressure

Staff cannot and should not tell people how to vote. They can make neutral information available: election date, how to confirm registration, and that the race is a low-turnout runoff. Quiet availability of facts is more durable than last-minute agitation.

3. Targeted digital reminders to existing lists

Anyone who already has an email list, patient newsletter, or local discussion group should use it once with a clean, factual note. Multiple messages in a short window create fatigue. One clear reminder with the date and the stake is enough.

4. Focus on registered voters who already participate

Chasing unregistered or low-propensity people this late is inefficient. The better use of limited time is reaching medical cannabis patients who are already on the voter rolls and have voted in recent elections. That is the group most likely to move in a July runoff.

5. Keep the ask narrow

The message should stay limited to this race and this date. Broad ideological appeals or long policy lists dilute turnout. The effective frame is simple: the electorate is small enough that disciplined participation still has weight.

Why the Choice Still Matters

Medical cannabis in South Dakota operates inside a political environment that can tighten rules, raise costs, or create new administrative friction. A low-turnout runoff is one of the few remaining points in the cycle where a relatively small, focused group of voters can affect who holds the governor’s office.

This is not about transforming the state’s cannabis laws in one election. It is about reducing avoidable political risk while the margin structure still allows it.

July 28 is a narrow window. The numbers only move if people actually vote.

From Diagnosis to Discipline: Building Primary Leverage in South Dakota’s Medical Cannabis Politics